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Crédit Agricole CIB

February 3, 2026

USD Squeezed and Steepened

Daily UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsInformation Technology

The USD is strengthening as investors pare back dovish Fed expectations following strong manufacturing data and a short squeeze. Meanwhile, the RBA hiked rates to 3.85% in a hawkish shift driven by persistent inflation and growth concerns.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The USD is recovering due to better-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data and a squeeze of crowded short positions.
  • 2.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a hawkish 25bp rate hike to 3.85%, citing broad-based and persistent inflation.
  • 3.A partial US government shutdown has delayed major labor market data releases (JOLTS and Non-farm Payrolls), shifting focus to Fed speeches.

Table of Contents

  • Asia overnight
  • USD: squeezed and steepened
  • AUD: RBA performs a hawkish hike
  • Open trade recommendations
  • Key events
  • Red Mount Analytics
  • Global Markets Research contact details

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Authors

Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci

Securities

AUDUSDEURUSDEURSEKPLTR

Themes

Central Bank Policy DivergenceYield Curve Steepening

Regions

North AmericaAsia PacificEuropeUnited StatesAustraliaNew Zealand