Wage Negotiations Key to Disinflation

Norwegian wage growth moderated to 5.0% in 2025, and upcoming 2026 negotiations will be the deciding factor for Norges Bank's first rate cut, expected in June.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2026 wage negotiations are the next critical test for Norwegian disinflation, with potential impact on Norges Bank's interest rate path.
• 2.Annual wage growth in 2025 moderated to 5.0% from 5.6% in 2024, slightly exceeding Norges Bank's 4.9% estimate.
• 3.A wage norm for 2026 between 4.1% and 4.3% would be considered neutral for Norges Bank's monetary policy.

Table of Contents

• Annual wage growth
• Upcoming wage negotiations
• Implications for Norges Bank
• Real wage growth: Actual vs. negotiated
• Annual nominal and real wage growth

Document Preview

Page 1 of 4

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial