What Could the IEEPA Ruling Mean for Consumer Goods

A potential Supreme Court ruling limiting IEEPA authority could lower US consumer-goods tariffs from ~15% to ~11%, providing significant margin relief for Asia-sourced retail and toys.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A Supreme Court limit on IEEPA could meaningfully lower consumer-goods tariffs, from approximately 15% to the mid-11% range.
• 2.The ruling would not unwind all tariffs (Section 232 and 301 remain), but sectors like apparel, furniture, and toys are uniquely exposed to IEEPA-based duties.
• 3.Discretionary retail and leisure sectors could see mid-to-high single-digit EPS upside if IEEPA tariffs are rolled back.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• US Economics: How will the IEEPA ruling matter for consumers
• Sizing the impact of tariff exposure in our scenarios
• How could this matter for the consumer?
• US Public Policy
• Retail/Consumer Credit
• Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail
• Leisure Products
• Packaged Food
• Beverages and Household Products
• Appendix

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