AI Imports in Overdrive Macro and Micro Perspectives

US AI-linked imports have surged to 17% of total imports ($550bn annualized), driven by a massive capex cycle in chips and servers. While these flows indicate robust investment, their imported nature means they have a neutral-to-slight drag effect on reported US GDP.

Key Takeaways

• 1.AI-linked imports now account for ~17% of total US imports, reaching an annualized rate of ~$550bn in 4Q25.
• 2.AI investment is partially masked in macroeconomic data because the imports offset the domestic investment component in GDP calculations.
• 3.AI spending is projected to contribute approximately 3 percentage points to nonresidential fixed investment by 2027.

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways
• AI in Data and Practice
• The Tariff Diaries
• AI-Related Import Data Shows Dramatic Acceleration
• Taiwan and Korea's Position as Crucial Global AI Semiconductor Producers
• Hardware Tech Supply Chain Deep Dive
• Growth Implications of AI
• Challenges of Using Trade Data to Track AI-Related Capex and of Quantifying Growth
• AI Investment Signals Further Investment
• Memory has become the new AI bottleneck
• Valuation Methodology and Risks
• Disclosure Section

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