US Aluminium Tariff Rollback Analysis

Despite discussions regarding a US aluminium tariff rollback, the market remains constrained by record-high Midwest premiums and near-zero exchange inventories. The structural supply deficit in the US ensures continued reliance on imports regardless of minor policy adjustments on derivative products.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Rumors of US aluminium tariff rollbacks target derivative products rather than primary metal, likely leaving core supply constraints unchanged.
• 2.US aluminium premiums have hit record highs, doubling since the 50% tariff was implemented in June 2025.
• 3.Domestic inventories are critically low, with exchange stocks effectively at zero since October 2025, leaving no buffer for supply shocks.

Table of Contents

• US aluminium prices soar
• Trade re-routing
• US import sources have shifted
• More Canadian metal flows to Europe
• US inventories are tight
• Supply constraints persist

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