CENX Equity Research & Reports

Institutional research on CENX and the domestic aluminium landscape highlights escalating supply constraints and pricing volatility driven by shifting trade policy. Following the collapse of US-Canada trade negotiations, Canadian aluminium remains subject to a 50% US tariff, pushing the Midwest premium to record highs. Although federal initiatives aim to reshore aluminium smelting, current domestic production satisfies only 15% of annual US demand. Attempts to expand domestic capacity, such as a proposed $4 billion joint venture in Oklahoma, face prolonged timelines and rigorous regulatory hurdles. Furthermore, scaling production requires massive continuous power infrastructure, demanding up to 1.2 GW per facility. Crucially, aluminium smelters must now directly compete for this scarce continuous energy supply against power-intensive AI data centers.