Bank of Russia Continues Its Cutting Cycle In a Surprise to Consensus

The Bank of Russia surprised markets with a 50bp cut to 15.5% while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.5-5.5%. Goldman Sachs maintains a target for the key rate to reach 12% by the end of 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Bank of Russia unexpectedly cut the key rate by 50bp to 15.5%, defying consensus expectations of a pause.
• 2.End-year inflation forecasts for 2026 were raised to 4.5-5.5% due to price adjustment delays and higher-than-expected January inflation.
• 3.The Bank lowered its oil price assumption for the Russian budget to US$45/bbl for 2026, indicating lower sensitivity of the economy to oil prices.

Table of Contents

• Bottom Line
• Key numbers
• Disclosure Appendix
• Reg AC
• Disclosures
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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