Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Robust January job growth and a 4.3% unemployment rate have likely delayed the next Federal Reserve rate cut until June 2026. Despite cooling core inflation, the resilient labor market and solid underlying consumer demand support a 'higher for longer' stance in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Stronger labor market data and cooler inflation have significantly reduced the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with March now appearing unlikely.
• 2.January payrolls grew by 130,000, exceeding expectations and pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.3%.
• 3.Inflation continues to trend downward, with core CPI reaching its lowest annual level since early 2021 at 2.5%.

Table of Contents

• U.S. Week in Review
• U.S. Week Ahead
• U.S. Trade Balance • Thursday
• Personal Income & Spending • Friday
• Q4 GDP • Friday
• Required Disclosures
• Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients

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