Topic

Iran War Research

Finvaulta tracks 611 research reports on Iran War, updated through October 6, 2026. Latest: Inside Commodities.

Institutional research on Iran War covering commodities, equities, government bonds, and foreign exchange, from UBS, MUFG, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan. Finvaulta indexes each report with a summary, key figures and its original publication date.

Finvaulta is an independent research collection; views and forecasts belong to the named report issuers.

Latest research

Inside Commodities

London Stock Exchange Group·Oct 6, 2026

Inside Commodities provides daily updates across energy, agriculture, metals, power, and freight markets amid significant geopolitical stress. Key developments include prolonged Middle East disruptions supporting oil near $100/bbl, Indian probes into soybean tariff evasion, gold maintaining safe-haven strength above $4,000/oz, and ongoing shipping delays through Black Sea/Danube river routes.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 30, 2026)

Where Are Saudi Arabia and UAE Economies Standing After Seven Months into the Iran War?

Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking·Oct 6, 2026

Seven months into the regional conflict, Saudi Arabia's economy contracted 4.7% yoy in Q2 2026 due to oil cuts and weak domestic momentum, with 2026 GDP risking zero growth. In contrast, the UAE demonstrated stronger resilience with 3.0% yoy Q1 growth, supported by financial sector expansion, traffic normalization, and a $30bn logistics push.

What Does the US-Iran Conflict Mean for Markets?

UBS·Oct 5, 2026

Despite ongoing US-Iran conflict and tanker attacks, the global energy system has successfully adapted, bringing Gulf crude exports back above pre-conflict levels and easing Brent crude prices to around USD 102/bbl. UBS remains constructive on global equities, rates fixed income as Attractive, and recommends diversified commodities for portfolio resilience.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 28, 2026)

Higher for Longer Priced In

SEB·Oct 2, 2026

Global bond yields have reached multi-decade highs, driven by aggressive central bank rate hike pricing following the Iran conflict, with the 10Y US Treasury yield surpassing 5.30%. However, rate expectations appear stretched, and expanding French and euro-area fiscal strains are emerging as the primary driver of downside risks for EUR/USD toward 1.10–1.11.

Forecasts at a Glance

Berenberg·Oct 2, 2026

Berenberg's macro outlook highlights that while the Iran war and energy prices temporarily raise inflation and benchmark bond yields, resilient fundamentals and fiscal spending support a modest expansion. Policy rates are expected to peak near-term with modest additional hikes from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ before easing resumes into 2028.

Global Markets Survey

Deutsche Bank·Oct 1, 2026

Deutsche Bank's Q3 2026 Global Markets Survey of 460 market participants reveals that respondents anticipate the US 10-year Treasury yield will peak around 5.70% over the next 12 months. Despite rising bubble concerns across major assets, nearly half of investors select US equities as their sole holding for the next decade.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 30, 2026)

Selected research

Selected for relevance; publication dates show when each report was written.

A Window Before Winter?

Deutsche Bank·Sep 29, 2026

Interim results from Deutsche Bank's end-Q3 survey show 83% of respondents believe US midterm elections incentivize the US administration to reach an Iran deal, while 56% think Iran's incentive is reduced. However, Iran may recognize that post-midterms the US administration's urgency will wane, creating a narrow pre-winter negotiating window.

International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan·Sep 28, 2026

J.P. Morgan's Data Assets & Alpha Group remains tactically cautious on global equities, favoring the US and select Asian markets over Europe while monitoring high bond yields and inflation impulses. Tech positioning showed aggressive re-risking into Mag7 and semiconductors, while copper faces severe supply risks that could drive prices toward $15,000/mt.

Oil Markets Weekly

J.P. Morgan·Jul 30, 2026

Iran is exploring a legal framework to charge service fees for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting from a binary 'open or closed' strategy to one of regulated use. This approach relies on UNCLOS precedents regarding service charges and could complicate global energy transit.

Iran Has Won So Far

UniCredit·Jun 19, 2026

The recent MoU between the US and Iran offers short-term relief for the global economy by reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal heavily favors the Iranian regime, leaving long-term geopolitical risks and nuclear proliferation concerns largely unaddressed.

Iran War Strategic Impasse

SEB·May 13, 2026

The Iran War has entered an economic attrition phase characterized by a US naval blockade and Iranian resilience. Global oil markets face extreme risk as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a full-blown energy crisis by mid-summer.