January Jobs Report and the Fed Outlook

Following a robust January jobs report and an upgraded 2026 GDP forecast of 2.5%, SG now expects only one Fed rate cut this year in June.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The January jobs report was significantly stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 130k and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%.
• 2.Societe Generale has upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% due to labor market momentum and a forthcoming fiscal impulse.
• 3.The Fed outlook has turned more hawkish, with SG now projecting only one 25bps rate cut in 2026, likely in June.

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways:
• The January Employment Situation
• The Broader Economic Outlook for 2026
• Updating the Fed Outlook
• APPENDIX

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