February 13, 2026

Week Ahead in Economics

Weekly UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFinancialsIndustrials

SG analysts have shifted to a more hawkish US stance, forecasting only one Fed rate cut in 2026 amid a GDP upgrade to 2.5%. Global growth is buoyed by an AI-led tech boom in Asia, while Europe sees slow recovery and stalled Eurobond discussions.

Key Takeaways

1.The US Fed is now expected to cut rates only once (25bp) in 2026, likely in June, following strong labor market data and sticky inflation.
2.Taiwan's 2026 growth forecast has been sharply upgraded to 6.3% due to exceptional export momentum in semiconductors driven by the AI boom.
3.Japan's 4Q25 GDP is expected to show solid recovery, reinforcing the case for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in April 2026.

From On Our Minds
Key Themes
Key Data Releases and Events Coming Next Week
SG Central Bank Calls
United States: Growth in Focus
Euro area: New Eurobonds won't happen soon
United Kingdom: Key week for judging a March vs April rate cut
Asia Pacific: Solid growth and sticky inflation in Japan; BI to hold
Latin America: Inflation data send mixed signals for central banks
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