Trump's Oil Price Pain Point in Iran Standoff

Trump is using aggressive negotiation tactics against Iran but is constrained by the need for low oil prices ahead of U.S. midterm elections. SEB identifies $80/b Brent as his strategic 'pain point' where he is likely to de-escalate.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Trump utilizes a negotiation style called TACO (Technique of Alarming and Competitive Offers/Door-in-the-Face), starting with maximalist demands to later propose 'reasonable' softer options.
• 2.Iran's primary leverage against U.S. pressure is the ability to disrupt the oil price via the Strait of Hormuz, which impacts U.S. domestic affordability.
• 3.The 'pain point' for Trump is estimated to be $80/b for Brent crude, beyond which U.S. retail gasoline prices become a major political liability for midterm elections.

Table of Contents

• Trump's oil-price-pain-point may be around $80/b in his standoff with Iran
• What Trump really wants is

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