Norwegian Oil Investment Survey

The Q1 Norwegian Oil Investment Survey revised 2026 estimates slightly upward to NOK 255bn, but confirms a cyclical downturn is beginning. Investment is expected to fall more sharply in 2027 as major projects from the pandemic tax-package era conclude.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2026 nominal petroleum investment estimate was revised upward to NOK 255bn, though this still represents a 6.5% decline compared to 2025.
• 2.The first investment estimate for 2027 is NOK 201bn, indicating a definitive cyclical turnaround as major tax-incentivized projects reach completion.
• 3.Investment in 2025 was robust, reaching NOK 273bn (an 8.7% nominal increase), driven primarily by cost inflation and activity in fields already on stream.

Table of Contents

• Investment cycle
• Investment 2025
• Investment outlook 2026
• Investment outlook 2027
• Implications for Norges Bank

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