Global Week Ahead: US Growth is Strong

Scotiabank anticipates solid US Q4 GDP of 3.5% but warns that tariffs are effectively a net tax hike for most US households. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada and RBNZ are expected to keep rates steady as markets digest early 2026 macro data.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US Q4 GDP growth is estimated at a solid 3.5% q/q SAAR, driven by consumption and trade, but sustainability concerns are rising.
• 2.The net impact of tariffs and tax changes is expected to result in a tax hike for most American households this year.
• 3.Canadian inflation (January) is expected at 2.4% y/y, with the Bank of Canada likely to remain on hold for some time.

Table of Contents

• Next Week's Risk Dashboard
• US Growth is Strong—Don't Blow It!
• WHO'S PAYING FOR TRUMP'S TARIFFS?
• THE US ECONOMY—STRONG GROWTH, QUESTIONABLE MOMENTUM AND BREADTH
• CANADIAN INFLATION—SIT THIS ONE OUT
• CENTRAL BANKS—SOMEONE SPICE IT UP!
• GLOBAL MACRO—SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE
• FORECASTS & DATA
• Global Central Bank Watch

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