Weekly Economics: Thoughts of the Week

The January 2026 employment report showed a strong 130k job gain, but massive benchmark revisions revealed that 2025 job growth was much weaker than previously estimated. Other indicators like retail and home sales softened, partly due to winter weather.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The January 2026 employment report was unexpectedly strong with 130k jobs added, well above the estimated breakeven for unemployment stability.
• 2.Benchmark revisions for 2025 revealed the labor market was significantly weaker than initially reported, with total job growth revised down from 584k to 181k.
• 3.The BLS birth-death model, which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had previously critiqued, was a major driver of the downward employment revisions.

Table of Contents

• Thoughts of the Week
• Forecast Table
• Economic Releases
• Disclosures

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