Saudi Arabia 2026 Outlook

Saudi Arabia's growth remains solid (projected 4% in 2026), but 'twin deficits' have triggered a pragmatic reprioritization of Vision 2030 projects.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Saudi Arabia is shifting from a 'build at any cost' model to a pragmatic 'strategic deficit' mode, reprioritizing projects to manage fiscal and external financing strains.
• 2.The non-oil sector, now accounting for 72% of gross value added, has become a genuine second growth engine, buffering the economy against oil price volatility.
• 3.Higher oil output (~10m b/d) in 2026 will likely be insufficient to offset lower prices (forecasted Brent $62), resulting in a projected fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP.

Table of Contents

• 1. Growth: strong growth rebound in 2025, solid carry into 2026
• 2. Oil: volumes up, but not enough to fully protect revenues
• 3. Non-oil sectors: Vision 2030 as a real second engine
• Construction and services: from "build at any cost" to targeted growth
• 4. Financing strains: a move into "strategic deficit" mode
• 5. Monetary policy, FX regime and external position
• Conclusion: from "all-in" investment to smarter capital allocation

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