Fast Comment Norway

The latest TBU report indicates that Norway's wage growth and inflation expectations are tracking higher than Norges Bank's projections, likely ending the central bank's rate-cutting phase.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Norges Bank's rate-cutting cycle likely ended due to persistent wage and inflation pressures.
• 2.2025 wage growth reached 4.8%, exceeding the negotiated target of 4.4%, driven by manufacturing sector pressures.
• 3.The TBU's 2026 inflation forecast of 3.0% significantly exceeds Norges Bank's 2.4% forecast, signaling higher wage growth risk.

Table of Contents

• Higher inflation expectations may lift the 2026 wage settlement
• Labour income share, manufacturing
• Research disclaimers

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