Global Economics Wrap-Up

Goldman Sachs analyzes the predictive power of central bank dissents and provides a global economic update, noting a slowing pace of rate cuts and mixed US labor and inflation signals.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Central bank dissents are predictive of policy moves, where a 10% hawkish dissent share correlates to a 4bp policy rate increase at the next meeting.
• 2.The pace of global easing has slowed, with 53% of DM and only 20% of EM central banks lowering rates over the last three months.
• 3.US labor data for January shows a 130k rise in payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate, despite significant downward annual revisions for previous years.

Table of Contents

• Global Economics
• US Economics
• Europe Economics
• Asia/EM Economics
• GDP Forecast Tracker: GS vs. Consensus
• Disclosure Appendix

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