CEEMEA Week Ahead

Goldman Sachs previews a week of central bank decisions and inflation data in the CEEMEA region, highlighting an expected hold from Romania's central bank and a slowdown in Israel's GDP growth. They maintain a high-conviction bullish view on South African government bonds due to fiscal outperformance.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its policy rate at +6.50% due to persistent inflationary pressures and fiscal uncertainties.
• 2.Israel's Q4 GDP growth is projected to slow to +3.4% qoq annl. from +11.1% in Q3, reflecting the mixed impact of the October 10 ceasefire and reduced defense spending.
• 3.South African inflation is expected to decline marginally to +3.4% yoy, and analysts maintain a bullish outlook on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs) as fiscal credibility improves.

Table of Contents

• Romania: NBR on Hold, Reflecting Inflationary Pressures
• Romania: Inflation to Decline by 0.2pp to +9.5%yoy in January, Driven by Lower Energy and Food Inflation
• South Africa January CPI: +3.4%yoy Headline (cons: +3.4%yoy) & +3.2%yoy Core (cons: +3.3%yoy)
• Israel: GDP to Grow by 3.4%qoq annl. in Q4
• Conviction Macro Views
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility

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