Canada January CPI Preview

Goldman Sachs forecasts Canada's January headline CPI to slow to +0.19% MoM (+2.35% YoY), with core inflation decelerating to +0.08% MoM. While a GST holiday base effect will add 66bp to the annual rate, subdued shelter costs and lower price resets are expected to temper overall inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline CPI inflation is expected to slow to +0.19% month-over-month in January, which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of +2.35%.
• 2.Base effects from a temporary GST/HST holiday introduced in December 2024 are expected to boost the year-over-year inflation rate by 66 basis points.
• 3.Core inflation (ex-food and energy) is projected to decelerate to +0.08% month-over-month, driven by subdued shelter costs and modest price resets.

Table of Contents

• January CPI Preview
• Disclosure Appendix
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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