US CPI Preview January 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB expects January 2026 US headline CPI to fall to 2.46% YoY, while core CPI reaches 2.55% YoY. Despite the decline, the stickiness of the PCE metric suggests the Fed will maintain its pause on rate cuts through 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline inflation is forecast to decline to 2.46% YoY in January from 2.68% in December, primarily driven by energy.
• 2.Core CPI is expected at 2.55% YoY (0.33% MoM SA), with volatility anticipated due to the BLS introducing new seasonal vectors.
• 3.The Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon based on this report, as the core PCE metric remains stickier than CPI.

Table of Contents

• US CPI for January due on Friday 13 February: context
• Our take for January CPI
• Looking ahead in 2026
• Implications for the Fed
• Services
• Core goods
• Food
• Energy
• PCE and the Fed: firm report may not prevent cuts
• Our CPI forecasts up to 2027
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (1/2) - food, energy, core goods
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (2/2) - services
• Contributions to YoY CPI
• Services CPI, selected components
• Core goods CPI, selected components
• Food CPI, selected components
• Energy CPI, only five components

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