US Nonfarm Payrolls: Great Start to the Year

January US nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 130k, though growth was almost entirely concentrated in healthcare. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, likely delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until June 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US nonfarm payrolls rose by 130k in January, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 65k and marking the strongest reading since late 2024.
• 2.Healthcare employment was the primary driver of job growth; excluding this sector, total nonfarm payrolls would have been slightly negative (-7k).
• 3.Substantial downward benchmark revisions were made to 2024 and 2025 data, revealing that job growth in 2025 was only 15k per month.

Table of Contents

• US NONFARM PAYROLLS: GREAT START TO THE YEAR
• Payroll revisions unpacked
• Disclaimer
• Remarks regarding foreign investors
• United Kingdom
• United States of America
• Copyright

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