Global Outlook in Pictures

The global economy is showing resilience with 2026 growth forecasts raised slightly for the US, Eurozone, and UK. While political risks from US tariffs and European bickering remain, the cyclical outlook is improving.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global economic growth remains on track for long-term trends despite geopolitical noise and Trump-related market volatility.
• 2.Growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised slightly upward for the US (2.1%), Eurozone (1.3%), and UK (0.9%).
• 3.US tariffs and immigration policies are expected to raise prices and impair long-term trend growth, even as AI investment supports near-term activity.

Table of Contents

• What has changed so far in 2026?
• Politics: looking through the noise
• US: Trump has deported Goldilocks (pp. 3-8)
• China: struggling with serious long-term problems (pp. 9-11)
• Eurozone: towards a cyclical peak in 2027 (pp. 12-23)
• Germany: return to growth (pp. 24-38)
• France: the new Italy (pp. 39-41)
• Southern Europe: on track (pp. 21-23)
• UK: beyond peak inflation (pp. 42-29)

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