US Pulse: Disinflation Momentum Gathers Pace

US disinflation momentum is building as CPI falls to 2.4% and the labor market shows signs of a 'hiring recession' beneath headline figures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US headline CPI fell to 2.4% y/y in January, indicating persistent disinflation momentum and reaching its lowest core rate since 2021.
• 2.Underlying labour market weakness is being masked by headline payroll growth; excluding education and health, jobs declined for the fourth straight month.
• 3.Risks to the Fed's dual mandate are shifting, with labour market risks intensifying while inflation risks ease, warranting further policy easing.

Table of Contents

• Labour market and inflation
• Data pulse: the week ahead
• The week that was

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