Australia Private Sector Credit Forecast Update

ANZ Research forecasts Australia's private sector credit growth to peak at 8.3% y/y in Q2 2026 before easing toward 6.5% by end-2027. This moderation is driven by slowing housing and personal credit, while business credit remains supported by AI-related capital expenditure.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Private sector credit growth in Australia is expected to peak at 8.3% y/y in Q2 2026 before moderating to 6.5% by the end of 2027.
• 2.Business credit growth remains resilient, driven by non-mining capex and artificial intelligence-related investments.
• 3.Housing credit growth is forecasted to soften as interest rate uncertainty and the RBA's February rate hike impact market momentum.

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