Gold Market Commentary

Gold prices surged 14% in January to exceed $5,000/oz, fueled by momentum and option market volatility. The outlook for 2026 remains positive due to persistent U.S. inflation risks and shifting stock-bond correlations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Gold surpassed the US$5,000/oz mark in January 2026, driven by a 14% monthly rally and record ETF inflows.
• 2.Options market activity and implied volatility were the primary drivers of January's returns, accounting for roughly 50% of the movement.
• 3.U.S. inflation risks are resurfacing due to fiscal support, tariffs, and tight labor markets, which may decouple the traditional stock-bond correlation.

Table of Contents

• Gold Market Commentary
• Bonds a no go
• The 5k club
• Highlights
• January review
• Looking forward
• Uphill struggle for bonds
• Inflation risks
• Market signals are mixed so far
• What it means for the stock-bond correlation
• In summary
• World Gold Council
• Research
• Market Strategy
• Important information and disclosures

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