Report published September 28, 2026
The Wolfe Power Trip: Who's Who in Power Heads to Wolfe Conference; VST/SEI M&A Estimate Updates
Wolfe Research · September 28, 2026
Wolfe Research reiterates an Overweight rating on the IPP sector, citing tightening power supply/demand fundamentals driven by data centers. The report also incorporates M&A updates for VST (Cogentrix) and SEI (Omega), keeping price targets unchanged at $232 and $120, respectively.
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Finvaulta summarizes Wolfe Research's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Maintains Market Overweight stance on Independent Power Producers (IPPs), driven by structural tightening in dispatchable power markets alongside soaring load demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and manufacturing reshoring.
- 2.Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) estimates are raised following its $308M Omega acquisition, $1.25B debt issuance, and turbine purchases, lifting run-rate EBITDA by $140M to ~$1.5B with a reiteration of its $120 price target.
- 3.Vistra Corp (VST) models are updated for the pending 5.5 GW Cogentrix acquisition, lifting 2027-2028 EBITDA by $450M-$500M and FCF by ~$250M, while maintaining an Outperform rating and $232 price target.
Table of Contents
- The Wolfe Byte
- Investment Conclusion
- Feedback on our Annual Power Supply Outlook
- Updating SEI estimates for Omega acquisition, debt issuance, guidance raise
- SEI Estimate History
- SEI Valuation
- Updating VST estimates for Cogentrix
- Wolfe/MTM/Consensus Estimates
- Recent Wolfe Power Trip Catalog
- Industry Notes
- Events Calendar / Regulatory Watch
- Market Commodity Prices versus Wolfe Research assumptions
- Master Comparables
- Regulated Comparables
- IPP Comparables
- Integrated Utility Estimates and Valuation
- IPP Estimates and Valuation
- Hedge Data and Sensitivities
- CEG Master Sensitivities (Ex-Divestitures)
- NRG Master Sensitivities
- PEG Master Sensitivities
- TLN Master Sensitivities
- VST Master Sensitivities (Standalone ex-Cogentrix)
- Earnings by Segment
- CEG Base vs. Base + Enhanced EPS
- Regulated Earnings Breakdown
- Power Markets – 7x24, Sparks and Darks
Report data
Independent Power Producers Coverage Summary Table — as of September 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total Forecast Net Power Supply Additions | 384.0 GW | Wolfe Research annual power supply outlook projected record net generation additions by 2030. |
| Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Generation Adds Forecast | 20.0 GW | Forecasted BTM capacity additions included as a standalone category for the first time. |
| SEI Omega Acquisition Price | 308.0 USD Millions | SEI acquisition of specialized EPC provider Omega. |
| SEI Run-Rate EBITDA Revision | 140.0 USD Millions | Upward revision in SEI run-rate EBITDA to ~$1.5B following M&A, debt, and turbine purchases. |
| VST Cogentrix Acquired Capacity | 5.5 GW | Gas portfolio acquired by VST primarily located in PJM and New England. |
Reports in this series
The Wolfe Power Trip is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
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