Report published September 28, 2026
Surging Real Yields Test a Resilient Market – WisdomTree Research
WisdomTree · September 28, 2026
Real interest rates have surged approximately 40 basis points in three weeks with 10-year TIPS approaching 2.8%, reflecting economic resilience rather than inflation fears. Equities have held up because strong economic expansion supports corporate earnings, balancing out higher discount rates.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Real yields have surged roughly 40 basis points in three weeks, driven by strong growth rather than rising inflation expectations, with 10-year TIPS approaching 2.8%.
- 2.Robust economic indicators—GDP growth between 3.3% and 5.0% and sub-200k jobless claims—mean monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive, raising odds of Fed rate hikes in October and year-end.
- 3.Equities have absorbed higher discount rates because economic growth simultaneously boosts corporate earnings, though higher borrowing costs burden small-cap and leveraged companies.
Table of Contents
- Surging Real Yields Test a Resilient Market
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real interest rate increase | 40.0 basis points | Sharp move in real interest rates over a short time frame |
| Atlanta Fed GDP estimate | 5.0% | Upper end of GDP growth forecasts showing economic resilience |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 200000.0 claims | Weekly initial claims pointing to a robust labor market |
| 10-Year TIPS Real Yield | 2.8% | 10-year real yield approaching levels not seen in many years |
| Mid-2027 Fed-funds expectations move | 100.0 basis points | Market repricing of terminal/medium-term Fed funds rate |
Reports in this series
Weekly Commentary is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
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