Report published August 26, 2026
Westpac-MI Leading Index Bulletin: Australian Growth Momentum and RBA Monetary Policy Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Westpac
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Matthew Hassan (Author)
Finvaulta summarizes Westpac's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index growth rate improved to -0.2% in July 2026 from -0.4% in June, indicating Australian economic growth remains sub-trend but not severely weak. GDP growth is projected to remain positive overall while tracking close to flat per capita, supporting a continued RBA cash rate hold in September.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index lifted to -0.2% in July from -0.4% in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of below-trend growth.
- 2.Economic momentum remains soft but not particularly weak; overall GDP growth is expected to remain positive in upcoming quarters, though close to flat in per capita terms.
- 3.The primary drag on the index stems from financial conditions (yield spread narrowing due to prior RBA tightening) and the labour market, offset partially by US industrial production and dwelling approvals.
Table of Contents
- Key points
- Westpac-MI Leading Index
- Leading Index suggests growth a little less sluggish
- Corporate Directory
- DISCLAIMER
Report data
Westpac-MI Leading Index
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Westpac-MI Leading Index 6-month annualised growth rate | -0.2% | Lifted to -0.2% in July from -0.4% in June, marking the seventh consecutive below-trend read. |
| Leading Index Yield Spread Contribution (Change since Jan) | -0.33 ppts | Abrupt narrowing of the yield spread driven by higher short-term rates took 0.33ppts off index growth. |
| US Industrial Production Contribution to Leading Index | 0.26 ppts | Provided positive support to the Australian leading index growth pulse. |
| RBA Inflation Target Range | 2–3% | Target range for inflation moderation. |
Reports in this series
Westpac-MI Leading Index Bulletin is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
Part of the Westpac-MI Leading Index Bulletin series — view all 3 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Westpac-MI Leading Index 6-month annualised growth rate: -0.2 % (July 2026) · Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
- Leading Index Yield Spread Contribution (Change since Jan): -0.33 ppts (January to July 2026) · Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
- US Industrial Production Contribution to Leading Index: 0.26 ppts (January to July 2026) · Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
- RBA Inflation Target Range: 2–3 % (2026) · Source: RBA