Report published August 26, 2026
Westpac Preview: RBNZ September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement & OCR Projections
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Westpac
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Kelly Eckhold, Satish Ranchhod, Darren Gibbs, Michael Gordon, Paul Clark
Finvaulta summarizes Westpac's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Westpac previews the RBNZ's September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, projecting a 25bp increase in the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%. The central bank is expected to reiterate a year-end OCR target of approximately 3.0% while adopting a data-dependent approach regarding further rate hikes in October and December.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Westpac expects the RBNZ to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% via a consensus decision at the September 2 meeting.
- 2.RBNZ projections are likely to continue implying a 3% OCR by year-end and peaking near 3.3% beyond 2026, remaining largely unchanged from the May MPS.
- 3.The RBNZ is expected to remain equivocal on an October rate hike, adopting a data-dependent stance as the OCR nears the 3% neutral level.
Table of Contents
- Removing a little bit of stimulus
- RBNZ decision and communication
- Scenarios
- Kelly's take
- Appendix: Key developments since the May Monetary Policy Statement
Report data
Official Cash Rate forecasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Official Cash Rate (forecast) | 2.75% | Westpac forecast for RBNZ OCR decision |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.6% | Rose above RBNZ's 5.4% forecast |
| Headline Inflation (CPI) | 4.1% | Slightly below May MPS forecast of 4.2% |
| NZ Dollar TWI | 67.2 index | Above the 66.6 level assumed in May projections |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Official Cash Rate (forecast): 2.75 % (2026-09-02) · Source: Westpac
- Unemployment Rate: 5.6 % (June quarter 2026)
- Headline Inflation (CPI): 4.1 % (Year to June 2026)
- NZ Dollar TWI: 67.2 index (August 2026)