Report published September 28, 2026
Westpac Morning Report: Global Market Stabilization, RBA Rate Hike Odds, and Yield Movements (28 September 2026)
Westpac · September 28, 2026
Global markets closed a volatile week firmer as retreating oil prices and declining bond yields bolstered sentiment despite ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. Markets continue to heavily price further central bank tightening, with Australian swap markets pricing a 90% chance of an RBA hike this week and US futures pricing rate hikes in October and December.
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Finvaulta summarizes Westpac's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global equities and bonds stabilized as lower oil prices supported sentiment amid reports of US-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait, though President Trump rejected Tehran's weekend proposal.
- 2.Australian bond yields were steady ahead of the RBA meeting, with swap markets pricing an ~90% probability of a September rate hike and a fully priced November hike to a 4.75% year-end cash rate.
- 3.US Treasury yields eased with the 2-year down 7bps to 4.85% and 10-year down 4bps to 5.16%, while Fed futures price >64% odds of an October hike and fully price December, implying a 4.23% year-end fed funds rate.
Table of Contents
- Key themes
- Data snapshot
- Financial Markets
- Today's key data and events
- International Data
- Local Data
Report data
Government Bond Yields — as of September 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Oil (WTI futures) | 92.41 USD/bbl | WTI crude futures price as of morning data snapshot |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.16% | Closing yield on US 10-year government bond |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.85% | Closing yield on US 2-year government bond |
| Australia 10-year bond yield | 5.37% | Australian 10-year government bond yield |
| Q3 GDP Growth Nowcast | 0.6 % q/q | First estimate of the Q3 Westpac-Nowcast for Australian GDP growth |
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