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Wells Fargo Economics

February 11, 2026

January Employment Strong Start Out of the Gate

Market ReportMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsHealth Care

January's employment report showed a strong 130K gain in nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This resilience likely puts further FOMC rate cuts on hold for the foreseeable future.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.January nonfarm payrolls rose by 130K, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 65K and pushing the three-month average to 73K.
  • 2.The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signaling that the labor market is stabilizing rather than rapidly deteriorating.
  • 3.Annual benchmark revisions revealed a major downward adjustment to 2024/early 2025 job levels, though recent momentum appears firmer.

Table of Contents

  • Summary
  • Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Recent Trend in Hiring Improves
  • Required Disclosures
  • Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients

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Authors

Sarah HouseMichael PuglieseTom PorcelliNicole Cervi

Securities

Fed funds rate

Themes

Benchmark Data RevisionsLabor Market ResilienceMonetary Policy Inflexibility

Regions

North AmericaUnited States