Report published September 23, 2026
Vontobel Equity Morning Note: Swiss Chocolate Sector Outlook & Roche Pipeline Update
Vontobel · September 23, 2026
Vontobel reiterates Buy ratings on Barry Callebaut and Lindt & Sprüngli, arguing the sell-off following the cocoa shock is overdone and volume recovery is nearing. Separately, Roche's price target is raised to CHF 412 following successful Phase 3 interim results for sefaxersen in IgA nephropathy.
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Finvaulta summarizes Vontobel's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Vontobel sees an excessive sell-off in Swiss chocolate equities and argues the sector is nearing an early volume inflection point, reiterating Buy ratings on Barry Callebaut (PT CHF 1,500) and Lindt & Sprüngli (PT CHF 12,500).
- 2.Roche reported positive Phase 3 interim data for sefaxersen in IgA nephropathy, meeting the primary endpoint of proteinuria reduction and prompting Vontobel to increase its price target from CHF 410 to CHF 412 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- 3.Lindt & Sprüngli is expected to generate record free cash flow in FY26-27 as cocoa costs normalize, supporting dividend growth, a CHF 1 billion share buyback, and reinvestment.
Table of Contents
- RESEARCH
- SWISS CHOCOLATE SECTOR REPORT
- WHAT'S NEW?
- EVENT CALENDAR
Report data
Roche Income Stat., Balance sheet, CF statement and Valuation table
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | 1500 CHF | Price target for Barry Callebaut (BARN SE) |
| Price Target | 12500 CHF | Price target for Lindt & Sprüngli (LISP SE) |
| Share Buyback Program | 1 CHF bn | Lindt & Sprüngli share buyback supported by record FCF |
| Price Target | 412 CHF | Price target for Roche (ROP SE), raised from CHF 410 |
| Sefaxersen Peak Sales Assumption | 500 CHF mn | Modeled peak sales for sefaxersen, with risk adjustment lowered to 20% from 50% |
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