Report published September 23, 2026

Trump-Xi Summit: Buying Time – UniCredit Research Report

UniCredit · September 23, 2026

Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington is expected to extend the bilateral trade truce and avoid tariff escalation, though structural tensions over critical minerals and AI will persist. Meanwhile, eurozone composite PMI is expected to soften slightly to 51.5 in September amid rising energy costs.

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Finvaulta summarizes UniCredit's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Xi Jinping's Washington summit is unlikely to yield a grand trade bargain, but is expected to buy time by extending key elements of the expiring bilateral trade truce.
2.US-China competition has moved beyond tariffs into strategic supply chain chokepoints, with China controlling critical minerals (rare-earth magnets) and the US controlling advanced semiconductors and AI technology.
3.China has kept rare-earth magnet exports to the US depressed (down 16% YoY through July 2026), while pivoting exports to the EU (up 17%).

The Context
The Data
Our View
Other Things to Note
Focus on eurozone PMIs
Today's Data Releases

Report data

CHINA KEEPS THE US ON A SHORT MINERAL LEASH: CHINESE EXPORTS OF RARE-EARTH MAGNETS, IN METRIC TONS

Metric	Estimate	Context
China rare-earth permanent magnet exports to the US	3500 metric tons	Volume of permanent magnets exported by China to the US following export restrictions and the trade truce.
China rare-earth permanent magnet exports to the EU	15000 metric tons	Volume of permanent magnets exported by China to the EU, more than four times US-bound shipments.
US-China non-strategic goods discussed for lower or zero tariffs	30 USD billion	Goods from each side discussed for lower or zero tariffs ahead of the summit.
Annual bilateral US-China goods trade	>400 USD billion	Total bilateral goods trade volume benchmarked against potential targeted agreements.
Eurozone Composite PMI	51.5 index	UniCredit forecast for September flash composite PMI in the euro area.

Source: Silverado Policy Accelerator, The Investment Institute by UniCredit; Bloomberg, The Investment Institute by UniCredit. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.