The Bottom Line

Latest edition · June 26, 2026

UniCredit The Bottom Line 20260626

This report previews upcoming ECB forum events in Sintra and June inflation data for the eurozone alongside US nonfarm payroll expectations.

The report highlights the upcoming 2026 ECB Forum in Sintra, where central bank leaders will address structural economic themes. Economists forecast a slight moderation in eurozone inflation to 3.1% in June and anticipate a significant slowdown in US job growth to 60k for the same period. The outlook includes one final expected ECB rate hike in September to a neutral terminal rate of 2.50%.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Eurozone inflation likely slowed to 3.1% in June with core inflation at 2.5%, and ECB expected to hike once more in September.
• 2.The 2026 ECB Forum in Sintra will serve as the primary focus for monetary policy guidance, featuring key central bank leaders.
• 3.US nonfarm payroll growth is expected to moderate significantly to 60k in June following recent strong gains.

What this series covers

• Focus on eurozone's inflation and Sintra
• TOP STORIES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
• ECB Forum in Sintra: focus on structural themes
• US payroll gains likely moderated
• WHAT WE ARE READING AND LISTENING TO
• DATA AND EVENTS CALENDAR
• FORECAST TABLES
• IN CASE YOU MISSED IT THIS WEEK
• Authors
• Legal Notices

Edition archive

• UniCredit The Bottom Line 20260626

  June 26, 2026

• UniCredit The Bottom Line Eurozone growth pulse edges higher

  June 19, 2026

• fxfistrategy docs 2026 188705

  June 6, 2026

• UniCredit- ECB set to hike 5 June 2026

  June 5, 2026