Report published September 27, 2026
Where Are the Opportunities in Fixed Income? – UBS Rates Strategy
UBS · September 27, 2026
UBS rates fixed income as Attractive amid a synchronized hawkish shift by major central banks. Investors are advised to selectively add duration in medium- to long-term high-quality bonds while pairing this with emerging market credit for enhanced yield.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Major central banks have taken a synchronized hawkish turn, with the Fed, ECB, and BoJ hiking policy rates by 25 bps, while the BoE showed greater tightening inclination.
- 2.Investors should selectively add duration in medium- to long-dated high-quality bonds, but stay cautious on the ultra-long end due to fiscal concerns, rising AI-related debt issuance, and elevated term premiums.
- 3.Emerging market credit and high yield debt offer appealing yields (around 6.8% for EM sovereign and 6.6% for EM corporate), supporting projected high-single-digit 12-month returns.
Table of Contents
- Key message
- 01 Major central banks have taken a synchronized, hawkish turn.
- 02 In quality bonds, there may be opportunities to add interest rate risk selectively.
- 03 And we see opportunities to diversify, especially in emerging markets.
- New this week
- One liner
- Did you know?
- Investment view
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ECB policy rate hike | 25 bps | ECB raised rates by 25 bps in September amid persistent inflation pressures. |
| Federal Reserve target rate range | 3.75-4% | The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%. |
| Bank of Japan policy rate | 1.25% | Bank of Japan increased its policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. |
| Swiss National Bank policy rate | 0% | SNB left policy rate unchanged at 0% at its September monetary policy assessment. |
| SNB average inflation forecast 2026 | 0.7% | SNB raised its conditional inflation forecast, projecting average inflation of 0.7% in 2026. |
Reports in this series
UBS House View Briefcase is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 27, 2026.
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