Report published September 28, 2026
What's Next for Commodities? UBS Commodity Strategy Report
UBS · September 28, 2026
UBS reiterates its positive stance on broad commodity exposure, noting that fundamentals extend beyond energy volatility into industrial metals and agriculture. Active management and rebalanced diversified exposure are recommended to capitalize on rotating sector leadership and hedge inflation.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The investment case for broad commodities extends beyond energy into industrial metals supported by AI and electrification, and agricultural commodities supported by El Niño risks.
- 2.Energy markets face acute volatility from Middle East tensions, with European natural gas reaching EUR 84.5/MWh and Brent crude trading around USD 108/bbl amid US-Iran exchanges.
- 3.Active management and diversification across commodities are favored over concentrated positions, as leadership rotates across sectors and gold gains can be broadened into base metals and agriculture.
Table of Contents
- Key message
- 01 Middle East tensions are impacting energy markets.
- 02 But fundamentals are supportive for broad commodities.
- 03 So, we continue to favor commodities, with a focus on active management.
- New this week
- One liner
- Did you know?
- Investment view
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Price | 84.5 EUR/MWh | Highest level since December 2022 amid Middle East tensions. |
| Brent Crude Oil Price | 108 USD/bbl | Trading price at the time of writing amid tanker targeting and military exchanges. |
| Spot Gold Price Daily Change | -3% | Fell to test a seven-week low as US yields surged on inflation concerns. |
| Probability of Very Strong or Super El Niño | 80% | Forecasted probability that El Niño reaches 'very strong' or 'super' rating by year-end. |
| Probability of El Niño Persisting into 2027 | 97% | Forecasted probability that El Niño conditions persist into 2027. |
Reports in this series
UBS House View Briefcase is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
Part of the UBS House View Briefcase series — view all 59 editions
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