Report published September 28, 2026

What to Watch in the Week Ahead – UBS Weekly Global Outlook

UBS · September 28, 2026

UBS CIO argues that markets are pricing in excessive central bank tightening, viewing the surge in government bond yields as a reflection of resilient economic growth rather than recession risk. The firm recommends staying constructive on equities backed by robust earnings growth while seizing tactical opportunities in quality fixed income.

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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Central bank hike pricing is excessive; recent sovereign bond yield spikes create tactical opportunities to add medium- to long-duration exposure in high-quality bonds.
2.Equities remain supported by resilient economic growth and corporate earnings (forecasting S&P 500 earnings growth of 25% this year and 14% in 2027) despite rising bond yields.
3.AI enthusiasm is broadening toward consumer agents following strong adoption of Meta's Muse, though investors should maintain diversified exposure across the value chain to manage execution risks.

Can government bond markets regain their poise?
Government bond markets
The equity rally
The outlook for AI
Can the equity rally continue to withstand higher yields?
Can AI agents sustain enthusiasm for the AI trade?
Chart of the week

Report data

Higher yields reflect strong economic growth: US quarterly nominal GDP growth, y/y %, 10-year average vs. 10-year Treasury yields, %

Metric	Estimate	Context
10-year US Treasury yield	5.16%	Reached highest level since 2007
30-year US Treasury yield	5.49%	Largest weekly increase since May, highest level since 2004
10-year French vs. German government bond yield spread	110 bps	Widest spread since July 2012
S&P 500 weekly performance	1.2%	Finished within 1% of record high despite higher yields
MSCI All Country World Index weekly performance	0.9%	Demonstrated equity market resilience