Report published August 17, 2026
UBS Research: What to Watch in the Week Ahead – Inflation, Fed Policy, and AI Infrastructure
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 17, 2026
Authors / editors: Mark Haefele (Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Cooling US inflation and moderating labor data support expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates unchanged through 2026, reinforcing an Attractive view on quality bonds. Meanwhile, strong fundamental demand in AI and cloud computing continues to expand into massive power and electrical grid infrastructure requirements.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US inflation cooled further in July, supporting UBS's base case that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through 2026 and reinforcing an Attractive stance on quality short- and medium-maturity bonds.
- 2.Robust fundamental demand across cloud and AI infrastructure continues to outweigh concerns around circular vendor financing arrangements, though investors are advised to maintain diversified exposure across computing, semiconductors, and software.
- 3.Surging electricity demand from AI data centers and government expansion programs is driving massive infrastructure needs, supporting quality industrials, utilities, and core private infrastructure assets.
Table of Contents
- What to watch in the week ahead
- Weekly Global
- Will incoming data allow the Fed to remain patient?
- Inflation, central bank policy, and fixed income
- The rebound in AI confidence
- Investing in structural trends
- Will strong AI demand continue to outweigh financing concerns?
- Can infrastructure investment keep pace with record power demand?
- Chart of the week
- Non-Traditional Assets
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
Report data
Cooling inflation and softer wage growth support quality bonds — as of August 17, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (m/m) | 0.2% | Core consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% m/m. |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.5% | Annual core CPI slowed to 2.5% from 2.6% in June, matching slowest pace since 2021. |
| Headline CPI (y/y) | 3.4% | Headline CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% in June. |
| Producer Price Index (m/m) | 0.0% | Producer prices were unchanged in July, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. |
| Producer Price Index (y/y) | 4.7% | Annual PPI slowed to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Core CPI (m/m): 0.2 % (July 2026)
- Core CPI (y/y): 2.5 % (July 2026)
- Headline CPI (y/y): 3.4 % (July 2026)
- Producer Price Index (m/m): 0.0 % (July 2026)
- Producer Price Index (y/y): 4.7 % (July 2026)