Report published August 17, 2026
What Is Next for Commodities? UBS Commodity Strategy & Market Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Giovanni Staunovo, Dominic Schnider, Daisy Tseng, Matthew Carter
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS maintains a favorable outlook on broad commodity exposure as Middle East tensions, El Niño weather disruptions, and AI-driven electrification create supportive fundamentals. An active management approach is favored to capture rotating sector leadership and manage volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Stalling Middle East negotiations and Strait of Hormuz tanker disruptions highlight the role of commodities as both a source of return and an inflation hedge.
- 2.Structural and fundamental drivers remain supportive, including AI infrastructure/electrification for industrial metals, El Niño risks for agriculture, and central bank demand for gold.
- 3.Active management and broad diversification are recommended to navigate rotating leadership and idiosyncratic commodity holding risks.
Table of Contents
- Key message
- 01 Uncertainty in the Middle East highlights the case for broad commodity exposure.
- 02 But fundamentals are also supportive for commodities.
- 03 So, we continue to favor commodities, with a focus on active management.
- New this week
- One liner
- Did you know?
- Investment view
- Non-Traditional Assets
- Disclaimer
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude price | just below 90 USD/bbl | Brent crude price level amid stalled Middle East peace talks and Strait of Hormuz restrictions |
| Brent crude weekly price change | 5.95% | Weekly rise due to stalled US-Iran talks and tanker disruption |
| UBS CMCI Composite total return index YTD performance | 26% | Gains in broad commodity total return benchmark |
| Probability of very strong or super El Niño | 81% | Forecast probability of current El Niño developing into very strong or super event |
| Probability of El Niño persistence into next year | 97% | Forecast probability that El Niño conditions persist into next year |
Reports in this series
UBS House View Briefcase is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the UBS House View Briefcase series — view all 11 editions
Looking for the latest edition? What's next for commodities en 1665613 (Aug 27, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent crude price: just below 90 USD/bbl (August 2026)
- Brent crude weekly price change: 5.95 % (Week ending 14 August 2026)
- UBS CMCI Composite total return index YTD performance: 26 % (YTD 2026)
- Probability of very strong or super El Niño: 81 % (By end of 2026)
- Probability of El Niño persistence into next year: 97 % (Into 2027)