Report published August 30, 2026
US Restaurants: What Are We Buying with Shares Pressured? — UBS Research
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 30, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Dennis Geiger, CFA (Lead Analyst), Paul Hao (Associate Analyst), Nikhil Gunderia (Associate Analyst), Emily Li (Associate Analyst)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS highlights investor discussions surrounding buying opportunities following widespread pullbacks across US restaurant equities. Preference remains centered on fast casual leaders (CAVA, CMG, WING) and resilient casual dining names (EAT, CAKE), while QSR sentiment remains pressured by sluggish sales and macro headwinds.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Investors are actively seeking buying opportunities amid sector pullback, focusing on fast casual leaders (CAVA, CMG, WING) where sales inflection could drive valuation multiple re-ratings.
- 2.QSR sentiment remains cautious due to sluggish sales, macro pressures, potential GLP-1 headwinds, and demographic concerns, with MCD sentiment most negative while DPZ sentiment is improving ahead of new product launches.
- 3.Casual dining momentum is holding up despite brief slowing inquiries, with positive sentiment on EAT and CAKE, while DRI sentiment remains negative due to Olive Garden same-store sales trends.
Table of Contents
- US Restaurants: “What Are We Buying With Shares Pressured?”
- Beverage offerings are a strategic lever to help drive increased traffic
- Beef costs have risen significantly over recent yrs; Consumption has declined
- GLP-1 users still dining out; Restaurant best practices to adapt to GLP-1 habits
- Charts of the Week
- Restaurant Valuation Quartiles
- OpenTable Reservations Data by State
- Valuation Method and Risk Statement
- Required Disclosures
- UBS Global Research Disclaimer
- Global Wealth Management Disclaimer
Report data
Figure 3: Restaurants NTM EV/EBITDA Valuation Quartiles — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.7 index points | Revised up from preliminary 51.0, reflecting consumer concerns over inflation and economic softening. |
| 1-Year Forward Inflation Expectations | 4.0% | Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year. |
| Beef Pricing Increase | 25% | Driven by the US cattle herd reaching a multi-decade low. |
| US Restaurant Dining Reservations Growth | 13 - 17% | US dining reservation trends remained solidly positive across the latest recorded two-week period. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.7 index points (August 2026) · Source: University of Michigan
- 1-Year Forward Inflation Expectations: 4.0 % (August 2026) · Source: University of Michigan
- Beef Pricing Increase: 25 % (Since 2023) · Source: Numerator
- US Restaurant Dining Reservations Growth: 13 - 17 % (15-Aug to 28-Aug 2026) · Source: OpenTable