Report published August 26, 2026
Turkish Credit: Selective Positioning – UBS Credit Strategy Report
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 26, 2026
Authors / editors: Tatiana Boroditskaya (Analyst), Emre Tekmen (Analyst)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS maintains a Stable credit outlook on Türkiye's sovereign debt but advocates selective positioning across Turkish credit due to persistent inflation and tighter bank margins. UBS prefers sovereign and Turk Telekom sukuk while remaining cautious on corporate issuers Arcelik and Sisecam.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UBS maintains a Stable credit outlook on Türkiye sovereign credit due to strong public finances and prudent monetary policy, favoring sovereign and Turk Telekom sukuk.
- 2.Turkish banks faced a tougher 2Q26 with higher funding costs compressing net interest margins, prompting UBS to avoid moving down the capital structure given tight subordinated-to-senior spreads.
- 3.Credit outlooks for corporates Arcelik and Sisecam are Deteriorating, with their 2-to-5-year credit risk flags moved to red due to weak market conditions, fierce competition, and margin pressure.
Table of Contents
- Turkish credit: Selective positioning
- Emerging market bonds
- Türkiye
- Banks
- Akbank
- Garanti
- Isbank
- Vakifbank
- Yapi Kredi
- Ziraat Bank
- Export Credit Bank of Türkiye
- Corporate issuers
- Arcelik
- Sisecam
- Consent solicitation
- Turk Telekom
- Ülker
- Municipality
- Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality
- UBS CIO risk views
- UBS CIO valuation views
- Required Disclosures
- Risk Information
Report data
Table 1 - Credit ratings — as of August 26, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CBRT Policy Rate | 37% | Central Bank of Türkiye brought market overnight rates back towards its policy rate. |
| Annual CPI Inflation | 35% | Declined from peak around 75% in May 2024 and hovering in the 30-35% range. |
| Türkiye Public Debt to GDP | 25 % of GDP | Low public debt ratio underpinning the sovereign credit profile. |
| Türkiye Projected GDP Growth | 3% | Projected GDP growth of around 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. |
| Turkish Banks Covered Average Net Interest Margin (NIM) | 3.6% | Average NIM across six covered Turkish banks. |
Reports in this series
Emerging Market Bonds is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
Part of the Emerging Market Bonds series — view all 5 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Emerging market bonds en 1665789 2 (Sep 1, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- CBRT Policy Rate: 37 % (August 2026) · Source: UBS
- Annual CPI Inflation: 35 % (June 2025 / 2026) · Source: UBS / Consensus
- Türkiye Public Debt to GDP: 25 % of GDP (2026) · Source: UBS
- Türkiye Projected GDP Growth: 3 % (2026) · Source: UBS
- Turkish Banks Covered Average Net Interest Margin (NIM): 3.6 % (2Q26) · Source: UBS
Securities
Themes
Regions
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