Report published September 10, 2026
Thai Corporate Credit: 1H26 Results & Strategy Analysis by UBS
UBS · September 10, 2026
Spurred by energy disruptions from the Iran war, Thai corporate credits within the PTT complex delivered bumper 1H26 earnings, easing sovereign and corporate ratings risks and cementing their investment grade standing. UBS maintains Stable credit outlooks across covered Thai issuers, recommending subordinated perpetual bonds from PTTGC and Thai Oil for attractive yield pickup.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Surging energy prices and crack spreads following the Iran war drove a major 1H26 earnings turnaround across the PTT complex, significantly bolstering financial profiles and credit standing.
- 2.Ratings downgrade risks have eased across the Thai corporate space, supported by Moody's revision of Thailand's sovereign outlook to stable and rating agency outlook upgrades for PTTGC and Thai Oil.
- 3.PTT and PTTEP senior bonds fully reflect their strong credit profiles, leaving subordinated perpetual notes of PTTGC and Thai Oil (callable 2030/2031) as the top attractive picks offering mid-6% yields and ~100 bps yield pickup.
Table of Contents
- PTT complex: Meaningful turnaround on the back of higher energy prices
- Ratings risk has eased on improved credit metrics
- Starting position has improved but outlook remains cloudy
- Investment view and key risks
- Issuer updates - Thai corps
- Advanced Info Service – Healthy earnings dampened by outsized dividends
- PTT PCL – Robust earnings but weaker cash conversion
- PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) – Beneficiary of higher oil prices
- PTT Global Chemical – Returning to profitability as product spreads widen
- Thai Oil – Reduced ratings risk amid an improved credit profile
- UBS CIO risk views
- UBS CIO valuation views
- Sell recommendations
- Issuer valuation views
- Risk Information
Report data
Thai corps under CIO coverage — as of September 9, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai crude oil average price | 91.2 USD/barrel | Crude price spike following the protracted Iran conflict supporting PTT upstream revenue. |
| Gross refining margins | 16.2 USD/bbl | Surge in refining margins boosting PTTGC profitability. |
| Gross integrated margins (excluding stock gains/losses) | 19.3 USD/bbl | Thai Oil refining margins expanded amid energy supply disruptions. |
| Adjusted net leverage | 3.0 x | PTT Global Chemical net leverage reduction following strong operating cash flow. |
| Adjusted net leverage | 1.6 x | Thai Oil net leverage reduction supported by EBITDA jump. |
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