Report published August 17, 2026
UBS Research: Stocks Should Stay Supported Despite a Potential Pickup in Volatility
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 17, 2026
Authors / editors: Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi (Author), Mark Haefele (Author), Jason Draho (Author), Daisy Tseng (Author), Chisa Kobayashi (Author), Jon Gordon (Author)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS maintains a constructive outlook for equities and risk assets into year-end despite lingering geopolitical risks and potential volatility. Solid US economic activity, strong corporate earnings revisions, and a weakening case for Fed rate hikes support equity exposure.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Foundations supporting risk assets remain intact due to resilient economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and weakening prospects for further Fed rate hikes.
- 2.Recent US disinflation, falling payrolls, and declining retail sales weaken the case for Fed rate hikes, pointing to an extended pause that should provide tailwinds for risk assets.
- 3.UBS maintains an Attractive stance on Japanese equities despite a Q2 GDP miss (1.1% annualized vs. 2.0% consensus), supported by AI semiconductor exposure and above-trend growth.
Table of Contents
- From the studio
- Thought of the day
- What to watch: 18 August
- Corporate earnings have delivered the biggest positive surprise.
- Caught our attention
- Market update
- Appendix
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Risk information
Report data
Market update — as of August 17, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| VIX Index | 15.0 points | Implied US equity volatility index value recorded on report date. |
| S&P 500 Level | 7786 index points | Current index price level and year-to-date return. |
| Japan Q2 GDP Growth (annualized) | 1.1% | Japan's annualized second-quarter GDP growth came in below the consensus forecast. |
| Japan Q2 Capital Spending | -1.2% | Decline in Japanese capital expenditure in Q2 weighing on domestic demand. |
| Brent Crude Price | 88 USD/bbl | Crude oil benchmark price performance. |
Reports in this series
UBS House View - Daily US is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the UBS House View - Daily US series — view all 6 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Daily US en 1666148 (Sep 8, 2026)
- Jul 3Daily US en 1662785
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- VIX Index: 15.0 points (2026-08-17) · Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS
- S&P 500 Level: 7786 index points (2026-08-17) · Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS
- Japan Q2 GDP Growth (annualized): 1.1 % (Q2 2026) · Source: government data
- Japan Q2 Capital Spending: -1.2 % (Q2 2026) · Source: government data
- Brent Crude Price: 88 USD/bbl (2026-08-17) · Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS