Recurring series

Weekly - Regional View Emerging Markets

Finvaulta tracks 6 editions of Weekly - Regional View Emerging Markets from UBS, published between June 1, 2026 and October 5, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · October 5, 2026

Weekly Regional View Emerging Markets en 1667476

Following first-round presidential and congressional election results showing strong conservative momentum, UBS has upgraded a 'deeper and durable fiscal adjustment' in Brazil to its base case. The authors anticipate material gains across domestic cyclical equities, yield curve compression, and BRL appreciation.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.1% of first-round votes versus 45.0% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, heading to a runoff on 25 October alongside strong gains for right and center-right parties in the Senate. This political shift makes a credible fiscal anchor and mandatory spending reforms UBS's base case. UBS expects domestically driven equities to lead the rally with upside potential exceeding 30% via multiple rerating toward 11.8x P/E, accompanied by yield compression in local rates and Brazilian real appreciation beyond fair value of USDBRL 5.10. Key risks include second-round voter shifts, cabinet selections, and execution hurdles in Congress.

Read the latest edition in full

Key takeaways from the latest edition

1.The first-round presidential election and strong right/center-right congressional results make a 'deeper and durable fiscal adjustment' UBS's base case scenario.
2.Domestically driven equities, local interest rates, and the Brazilian real should benefit in that order from the increased likelihood of fiscal reform.
3.Brazilian equities offer potential upside of more than 30% through multiple expansion toward 11.8x P/E, led by domestic cyclicals over oil producers.

What this series covers

What happened
Investment implications
Why equities would lead
Rates: Compression in both real and nominal yields
BRL: Supportive backdrop
Risks to our view

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked: 6
First edition: June 1, 2026
Latest edition: October 5, 2026

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