US Economics Weekly

Latest edition · July 17, 2026

US Economics Weekly - Tariff news, then the FOMC

The report previews the upcoming July FOMC meeting amidst heightened policy uncertainty under Chair Kevin Warsh and discusses the impending expiration of Section 122 tariffs.

This weekly economics report examines the high degree of uncertainty regarding the July FOMC interest rate decision, noting the lack of clear signaling from Chair Warsh. It also provides an analysis of U.S. trade policy, specifically the July 24 expiration of Section 122 tariffs and the shift toward Section 301 enforcement, while reviewing recent benign inflation data (CPI) that supports a hold on rates.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The FOMC is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the July meeting despite high policy uncertainty.
• 2.Section 122 tariffs expire July 24; the administration is expected to utilize Section 301 investigations to maintain tariff levels.
• 3.June headline and core CPI fell, signaling cooling inflation, though PCE inflation remains above target.

What this series covers

• Economic Comment: FOMC preview
• What do we know?
• The July meeting expectations
• Task forces. Count 'em. That's five.
• Section 122 tariff expiry looms, IEEPA refunds flow
• Week in Review: Inflation surprise
• Warsh's testimony: AI structurally disinflationary
• Fedspeak: Inflation concerns and AI-related price pressures
• June FOMC Minutes: 12-0 vote; split participants
• Energy data recap: gas and oil prices rising again
• Immigration restrictions and legal changes: an ongoing risk
• Economic Forecast Table
• Week Ahead: tariffs and federal spending

Edition archive

• US Economics Weekly - Tariff news, then the FOMC

  July 17, 2026

• UBS US Economics Weekly We expect a bumpy H2

  July 2, 2026

• UBS US Economics Weekly Big week for macro next week

  June 26, 2026

• UBS US Economics Weekly Inflation week up next 20260508

  May 11, 2026