UBS House View - Daily EMEA

Latest edition · October 6, 2026

Daily EMEA en 1667544

Global equity markets advanced on softer US payrolls data and declining crude oil prices, supporting a constructive 6-to-12 month outlook. UBS advises building portfolio resilience using broad commodities, quality bonds, and hedge funds to manage headwinds from volatile Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions.

Global risk assets started the week higher after softer US jobs data eased Fed rate hike expectations and crude oil prices dropped back to around USD 100.5/bbl. While near-record equity levels and high 10-year Treasury yields may cause near-term volatility, UBS recommends staying invested with diversified equity holdings paired with broad commodities, capital preservation strategies, and quality bonds. In Europe, political developments including Spain's snap election and French budget negotiations weigh on the euro and sovereign spreads, but UBS anticipates contained broader macro fallout and an eventual rebound in EURUSD. Meanwhile, El Niño risks threaten agricultural supply chains and food prices.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Constructive 6-to-12 month outlook for equities remains intact driven by solid earnings and economic resilience, despite near-term risks from elevated yields and geopolitics.
• 2.Investors should manage concentration risk and build portfolio resilience via broad commodities, quality fixed income, capital preservation, and alternatives.
• 3.Spanish snap elections and French fiscal strain introduce European headline risk, but macroeconomic stability and ECB backstops are expected to limit severe contagion.

What this series covers

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Edition archive

• Daily EMEA en 1667544

  October 6, 2026

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  October 5, 2026

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  October 2, 2026

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