Global Macro Chart of the Day

Latest edition · September 24, 2026

Kapteyn Global Macro Chart of the Day (#159) How restrictive is global monetary

Global monetary policy remains roughly neutral, with median policy rate deviations from r* standing at -25bp across developed markets and +38bp across emerging markets. Outside of extreme outliers like Colombia, Brazil, and Hong Kong, most central banks are within 100bp of neutral and have raised rates by no more than 50bp since February.

Despite tightening efforts to mitigate energy-driven inflation, global monetary policy is 'about as neutral as it gets.' In DM, roughly half of central banks sit above neutral and half below (median deviation of -25bp), with the US only modestly restrictive (~100bp above midpoint r*) and Switzerland, Sweden, and Japan slightly accommodative. In EM (median deviation of +38bp), only Colombia (+590bp) and Brazil (+375bp) are clearly restrictive, while China is the most accommodative (-160bp). Central banks are demonstrating far more caution than during the 2022-23 shock, as softer labor markets and hopes of a transient shock keep rate moves under 50bp for nearly all economies.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Global monetary policy is currently about as neutral as it gets, with median deviations from r* of -25bp in DM and +38bp in EM.
• 2.In DM, only Hong Kong and the US sit clearly on the restrictive side, but even US fed funds is only ~100bp above midpoint r*, while Switzerland, Sweden, and Japan are most accommodative (75-80bp below).
• 3.In EM, Colombia (+590bp) and Brazil (+375bp) are clearly restrictive, whereas China is the most accommodative at ~160bp below neutral; most other EM central banks remain within 100bp of neutral.

What this series covers

• About as neutral as it gets

Edition archive

• Kapteyn Global Macro Chart of the Day (#159) How restrictive is global monetary

  September 24, 2026

• Kapteyn Global Macro Chart of the Day (#158) The incredible accumulation of wealth at the top

  September 23, 2026

• Kapteyn Global Macro Chart of the Day (#152) A Turn in Capex Intentions

  September 15, 2026

• Global Macro Chart of the Day - (#128) - UKs fiscal risk premium

  July 21, 2026

• Global Macro Chart of the Day - (#126) - Chinas 2nd quarter in historical perspective

  July 17, 2026

• Global Macro Chart of the Day - (#125) - Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the wealthiest of them all

  July 16, 2026