UBS logo

Recurring series

UBS

FX Monthly View

Finvaulta tracks 4 editions of FX Monthly View from UBS, published between May 21, 2026 and July 15, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · July 15, 2026

Currencies en 1663324

The report highlights that FX markets are heavily influenced by the Iran conflict and oil price volatility. UBS recommends a carry-focused strategy, favoring specific G10 and EM currencies while remaining neutral on the EUR.

UBS identifies that the ongoing Iran conflict is the primary driver of currency markets through its effect on oil prices and inflation expectations. While initial spikes in oil prices caused concern, adaptive global markets suggest Brent crude will not exceed $100/bbl, allowing G10 central banks to maintain current policy. Consequently, the firm maintains a pro-carry stance, favoring SEK, NZD, AUD, GBP, CNY, and NOK, while suggesting diversification into emerging market currencies like ZAR, BRL, MXN, and INR, despite risks of conflict escalation.

Read the latest edition in full

Key takeaways from the latest edition

  • 1.FX markets remain sensitive to the Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, which currently drives inflation and central bank policy expectations.
  • 2.The CIO favors selective exposure to pro-growth and carry currencies (SEK, NZD, AUD, GBP, CNY, NOK).
  • 3.Emerging market FX carry trades remain attractive, specifically ZAR, BRL, MXN, and INR, while caution is advised for TRY.

What this series covers

  • CIO View: Currencies
  • Risks to our view
  • Appendix

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked
4
First edition
May 21, 2026
Latest edition
July 15, 2026
All UBS research

Never miss an edition

Create an account to follow this series