Report published August 17, 2026
UBS Commodities Strategy: Copper Price Outlook and Supply Deficit Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Dominic Schnider (Author)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS maintains a constructive outlook on copper, raising its target price to USD 15,500/mt by mid-2027 amid physical concentrate shortages, DRC export restrictions, and resilient demand. The global refined copper deficit is projected at 219,000 mt in 2026 and 379,000 mt in 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.LME copper prices surpassed USD 14,500/mt driven by a DRC copper-concentrate export ban, supply disruptions in Chile/Peru, and tight physical conditions.
- 2.UBS raised its copper price targets to USD 15,000/mt for Dec 2026 / Mar 2027 and USD 15,500/mt for Jun 2027 / Sep 2027.
- 3.The global refined copper market is projected to be in deficit by 219,000 metric tons in 2026 and 379,000 metric tons in 2027, justifying a long positioning strategy.
Table of Contents
- Riding high on tight supply
- Appendix
- Risk information
Report data
Copper (USD/mt) Forecasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Spot Price | 14147 USD/mt | Spot price of copper as of 17 August 2026. |
| Copper Price Forecast (Dec 2026) | 15000 USD/mt | End of period forecast for copper prices. |
| Copper Price Forecast (Sep 2027) | 15500 USD/mt | Introduced new end-September 2027 target. |
| Global Refined Copper Deficit | 219000 metric tons | Global refined copper balance deficit projection for 2026. |
| Global Refined Copper Deficit | 379000 metric tons | Projected deficit for 2027, equivalent to 1.3% of global annual demand. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Copper Spot Price: 14147 USD/mt (2026-08-17) · Source: Bloomberg
- Copper Price Forecast (Dec 2026): 15000 USD/mt (2026-12) · Source: UBS
- Copper Price Forecast (Sep 2027): 15500 USD/mt (2027-09) · Source: UBS
- Global Refined Copper Deficit: 219000 metric tons (2026) · Source: UBS
- Global Refined Copper Deficit: 379000 metric tons (2027) · Source: UBS